Part I: Executive Summary

California enacted its "Three Strikes, You’re Out" law in March 1994. The intent of this major policy initiative is to reduce crime by targeting serious, repeat offenders for long-term incarceration. Toward this end, the law increases the penalty for a third felony conviction to 25 years to life if the offender has two or more previous serious or violent felony convictions. The law also doubles the sentence for a new felony conviction if the offender has previously been convicted of one serious or violent felony.

Shortly after the Three Strikes law took effect, the Board of Corrections (BOC) began collecting data regarding the impact of this statute on the State’s jail system. These research efforts, undertaken in conjunction with the California State Sheriffs’ Association and with the cooperation of numerous local corrections professionals, represented an attempt to assess the initial implications of the Third Strikes law. At the direction of the Legislature, the BOC subsequently worked with the Office of Criminal Justice Planning in assessing the impact of the Three Strikes law on virtually every component of the criminal justice system.The purpose of this bulletin is to summarize and update the impact of the Three Strikes law on one part of that system – local jails. This specific focus is important given the capacity constraints on California’s jail system, which has grown from an average daily population of 67,576 inmates in 1993 to 79,149 inmates in 1998 and is facing a projected shortfall of over 27,000 beds during the next five years. Further, this focus is possible because the BOC implemented a program in 1996 (the Jail Profile Survey) to gather more comprehensive, accurate data on a monthly basis about the status of local jails. As a result, the BOC is equipped to report the longer-term impact of the Three Strikes law on California’s jails.Most local corrections administrators anticipated that the Three Strikes law would have a major impact on the State’s jail system. The projected effects included increases in the pre-trial jail population (unsentenced inmates), percent of Two and Three Strike inmates in the jail population, and length of stay. The BOC’s first assessment of the law, which involved a survey of 18 counties whose average daily jail population constituted 69% of the statewide jail population, found that:

• The percentage of pre-trial inmates in the jail population increased from 53% in 1993 to 61% by January 1, 1995.
• Two and Three Strike inmates comprised 9.4% of the jail population in September 1994 and 10.9% in January 1995.
• The average length of stay for all inmates increased from 19.5 days in 1993 to 20.3 days in 1994 (and Three Strikes inmates had been incarcerated an average of 204 days, with many still in jail as of January 1, 1995).

As a follow-up to this research effort, the BOC assessed the impact of the Three Strikes law as of January 1, 1996 and found that non-sentenced inmates constituted 62% of the jail population, Two and Three Strikes inmates comprised 11.4% of the population, and average length of stay increased to 22.3 days.Fifteen of the 18 jurisdictions that participated in the original research also took part in the BOC’s follow-up survey. These 15 jurisdictions accounted for 66% of the statewide jail population. Not all of the jurisdictions could supply data requested by the BOC. In addition, some respondents indicated that portions of the data submitted the previous year were estimates rather than actual counts. Consequently, the BOC concluded that comparative year-to-year trends should be considered preliminary and speculative.To ensure the collection and reporting of reliable data about California’s jails, including information on Three Strikes-related issues, the BOC established the Jail Profile Survey. This comprehensive survey collects monthly data from all 58 California counties, 63 local jail jurisdictions and 136 local jail facilities. The BOC reports the survey’s findings on a quarterly basis to counties and annually to the Legislature.In terms of Three Strikes, the BOC’s 1996 and 1997 Jail Profile Surveys found that:

• Pre-trial inmates represented 59% of the jail population in 1996 and 58% in 1997.
• Two and Three Strike inmates comprised 9.5% of the average daily jail population in 1996 and 6.3% of the population in 1997.
• The average length of stay declined slightly in 1996 (21.6 days) and increased to 23.7 days in 1997.

The BOC recently completed the 1998 Jail Profile Survey and hopes to have the annual report available in the very near future. In terms of updating the impact of the Three Strikes law on local jails, the 1998 Jail Profile Survey found that:

• Pre-trial inmates represented 57% of the average daily jail population.
• Two and Three Strike inmates comprised 7.1 percent of the jail population.
• The average length of stay for jail inmates increased to 24.4 days.

So, what does all this mean? After five years, have the anticipated effects of the Three Strikes law on California’s jails been realized? The second part of this bulletin, which examines Three Strikes data in greater detail, addresses these questions. In the final analysis, it appears that some of the early trends identified by the BOC (increasing percentages of pre-trial and Three Strike inmates) have not continued in the longer term. In fact, the Three Strikes jail population appears to be stabilizing. While this is welcome news, California’s jail system still faces an immediate and severe capacity crisis. In 1998 alone, over 275,000 offenders had to be released from jail early due to court-ordered population caps and lack of bed space. In addition, nearly 2.6 million warrants went unserved in 1998.

The BOC will continue monitoring the impact of the Three Strikes law on local jails and remains committed to working with the State’s sheriffs and policy makers to meet the critical need for expanding the capacity of California’s jails.

Part II: Three Strikes Data and Analysis

When California’s Three Strikes law took effect, many local corrections administrators expressed concerns that the number of Two and Three Strike inmates would rise rapidly, resulting in problems for the jail system, which encompasses 63 jurisdictions and 136 facilities throughout the State’s 58 counties.

One of the BOC’s responsibilities is to gather data on this system. The mechanism for gathering these data is the Jail Profile Survey, which became operational in the first quarter of 1996 and involves the collection of data for 38 different variables. Although some jurisdictions are unable to supply data for each variable, the BOC insists on having Average Daily Population (ADP) data from all California jurisdictions. In the worst of cases for a variable with incomplete data, the reporting jurisdictions account for at least 70 percent of the State’s ADP. Therefore, the BOC believes that the survey data provide a valid picture of the state of the jail system and that our projections are based on a very sizeable and representative sample.

In terms of the Three Strikes law, Jail Profile Survey data for the past three calendar years show that the total number of inmates with Two and Three Strikes has declined since 1996 (from 6,341 to 5,980) and that these inmates have consistently comprised between over 7 and under 9% of the total ADP. Table A provides this three-year comparison (for a detailed analysis by quarter, please see Table B).

Table A: 3-Year Comparison of 2^nd and 3^rd Strike Jail Inmates

These data indicate that Three Strikes jail populations rise and fall irrespective of the ADP. In 1997, for example, the ADP increased by 4,862 inmates yet the total number of Two and Three Strike inmates declined by 540. In 1998, the ADP rose by 2,238 inmates and the number of Two and Three Strikes inmates grew by 179.

These data also show that there is a no-growth trend in the number of inmates with Two or Three Strikes or in their percent of the total ADP.

Based on yearly and quarterly data (provided in Table B), the BOC projects that inmates with Two or Three Strikes will continue to stabilize and comprise between 7 and 9% of the total ADP in the near future.

Table B: Detailed Analysis by Quarter of the Three Strikes Jail Population